By Harsha Gunasena –
Harsha Gunasena
The essence of the policies of President Trump is to minimize the budget deficit and the deficit of the current account of the USA. The USA has to bear the colossal costs of wars in different parts of the world. Trump thinks that these costs could be minimized by a reconciliation with Russia. The biggest trade deficit the USA has is the deficit with China. Trump thinks that by imposing tariff on the goods imported from China this deficit could be reduced.
President Obama (2009-2017) faced the problem of the trade deficit with China by trying to introduce the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement where the Pacific-Rim economies other than China were participants. It did not materialize. His policy towards Russia was to make Russia impotent as much as possible.
Viktor Yanukovych who was aligned to Russia became the President of Ukraine in 2010. In 2013 he suspended an Association Agreement with the European Union which triggered a protest campaign against him. In the background of these protests was the Obama Administration. The intention of the USA was to get Ukraine aligned with the West. As a result, Western Block’s border would be extended to Russia. It was reported at that time that the USA spent around USD 5 billion on this project. Yanukovych was ousted in February 2014 and Russia invaded Crimea which was a territory of Ukraine in March 2014.
Poroshenko who came to power thereafter imposed several anti-Russian measures in Ukraine by law such as degrading the use of Russian language irrespective of the large Russian speaking population in Ukraine. When Zelenskyy came to power in 2019 there was a strong anti-Russian ideology in Ukraine, and he came to power by using this ideology. Trump was the president of the USA at that time and Joe Biden became the president in 2021.
Biden carried forward the policy of Trump on China and the policy of Obama on Russia. As a result, the Western Block took steps to get Ukraine into the NATO and Russia opposed to it which was reasonable. Russia requested a guarantee that Ukraine will not be admitted to the NATO as a condition not to invade Ukraine. The West as well as Ukraine failed to give that guarantee. As a result, Russia invaded Ukraine and the West continuously supported Ukraine. Zelenskyy failed to manage this critical moment beneficial to his country.
We are now saying that Zelenskyy should have reconciled with Russia before the war was started. I have written an article also in this respect. However it was not an easy task. The first reason was at that time there was a strong anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine. These people were labelled as Nazis by President Putin. He said that Russia should punish these Nazis in Ukraine. If Zelenskyy has taken a pro-Russian stance at that time he would have faced the same fate Yanukovych faced. It would have been serious since the USA was ready to inflate such a resistance that would have originated.
When looking back at history the best chance for Zelenskyy for such a move was the time when Trump was the President of the USA, from 2019 to 2021. If it happened during that time the USA would have not gone against such a move, however Zelenskyy would have to face the public opinion in Ukraine. It was not easy for a novice like him to handle it. Hence even though we say whatever against Zelenskyy the public of Ukraine should accept the blame.
On the other hand, Russia complained that after the cold war there were five rounds of expansions with joining fourteen countries to NATO which is true. However, after the start of the war in Ukraine, Finland joined NATO with ending Finlandization in 2023 and Sweden joined NATO in 2024.
There are various criticisms against Zelenskyy of his behaviour at the discussion with Trump and Vance. It is true that he was not diplomatic. His approach and body language was wrong. He was there with folded hands. He should have known his limits. But were Trump and his deputy diplomatic? Why did they have such a discussion in public?
What I have to say about Zelenskyy’s dress is that he used a similar dress when he addressed the Congress in the USA some time back.
Trump or Biden are not the America which is bigger than both of them. Can America draw up the road map to abandon Ukraine in such a manner when America itself persuaded Ukraine to enter into the war with Russia? Is it diplomacy?
The President of Iran made a statement when Biden was the US President that America cannot be trusted citing the unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action by America. He did not say that Trump cannot be trusted but America. No country should behave in this manner. Zelenskyy also would have said the same thing said by the Iranian President.
The USA has persuaded Europe into the war. Therefore, not only Ukraine but also Europe would be in trouble as a result of the present situation. European leaders met in London promised that they would continue to support Ukraine, also they said that they will draft a peace deal along with Ukraine to end the war. The White House welcomed this process.
No one should be hurried to say that Zelenskyy has spoiled his case. Some more will face the same situation in the time to come. If not rectified this would be the breakdown of the West. The ultimate winner would be China.
The accepted foreign policy for most of the small countries such as Ukraine and Sri Lanka is the policy of non-alignment. Sri Lanka especially at the time of Mrs. Bandaranaike acted like this. Sri Lanka had to face a similar but less intensified situation when JR Jayewardene’s time because of either alignment with the West or India, which was not in line with the Western Block at that time, has perceived that Sri Lanka was aligned with the West. Sri Lanka was rescued because of the agreement signed by JR with India while the whole country including many of his cabinet opposed it.
We should examine the policy of Ranil Wickremesinghe in this respect. He does not apply a non-aligned policy, but a policy aligned to Sri Lanka. When he was asked whether he aligned either to India or to China he answered that he was aligned to Sri Lanka. Trump also promotes a policy aligned to the USA. American Presidents were promoting the policies which were beneficial to the USA in the long run, but Trump is focusing to the immediate issues since the budget and current account deficits should be addressed immediately.
Trump is asking the right to the minerals in Ukraine in exchange of the aid given to Ukraine during the war. Trump does not recognize the promises given by the USA to Ukraine at this point.
Ranil was questioned during the recent NXT Conclave 2025 held in India that the Chinese ships coming to Sri Lanka was a threat to Indian security. Ranil moved away from the level the question was asked and said that during his time he stopped the arrival of such ships temporarily. If they were engaged in commercial experiments in the Sri Lankan Sea Sri Lanka should have been paid for that and he instructed to have necessary legal provisions for that. This is similar to the approach of Trump, and it is beyond the level of non-alignment.
During the same event a questioner said that Sri Lanka is getting benefitted due to the rivalry between India and China. Ranil said India is a member of QUOD (A group against China comprising of the USA, India, Japan and Australia) and at the same time it is a member of BRICS (A group for emerging economies and the main countries were Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) India will not go for a conflict with China. India can play its game, and Sri Lanka will play its game. This game is not really non-alignment. Sometimes it could be opportunist.
In January 2024 Ranil Wickremesinghe as the President proposed to the Non-Aligned Movement that it should spearhead a campaign to set up a state of Palestine within the next five years. Thereafter he worked with the American naval forces fighting against the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. When asked he said that due to the actions of the Houthis Sri Lankan exports to Europe and to the USA had to face higher freight rates and therefore, he worked against them. This is not alienating Palestine, nor supporting Israel and not non-alignment. It is to align with Sri Lanka.
At the time of the start of the Ukraine war Ranil said (He was not in power at that time) Zelenskyy did not align with Ukraine. He criticized the West at that time and spoke in favour of Russia. ( There are accusations that he is an ally of the West) He said that Asia was neutral in this war pointing out India and China. If Ranil were the President of Ukraine at that time he would have given a guarantee to Russia that Ukraine would not join the NATO as JR signed the agreement with India when the whole country was opposing. In this type of critical moments, the leaders should disregard the so called public opinion which is idiotic in general.
If a small country adopts a foreign policy in the type Ranil was adopting the leader of that country should be shrewd enough since it is like walking a tightrope. Zelenskyy is not shrewd enough and in near future we can see whether Trump is shrewd enough or not.
Published in Colombo Telegraph on March 3, 2025
https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/donald-trump-volodymyr-zelenskyy-ranil-wickremesinghe/
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