By Harsha Gunasena –
Harsha Gunasena
The only way to find out electoral preferences of the state sector employees is to study the way the postal votes were casted during the elections. Prior to 1982, results of postal votes were not available on the website of the Election Commission. Starting from the Presidential Election of 1982 the postal vote preferences were indicated under each district in both Presidential and Parliamentary Elections except for the Presidential Election held in 1999 where the main contestants were Chandrika Kumaratunga and Ranil Wickremesinghe. For this analysis I have considered only the results of the Presidential Elections held from 1982 to 2024 except in 1999.
The main contestants in 1982 were JR Jayewardene(JRJ) and Hector Kobbekaduwa (HK); in 1988 R. Premadasa (RP)and Sirimavo Bandaranaike (SB); in 1994 Chandrika Kumaratunga (CBK)and Srima Dissanayake (SD); in 2005 Mahinda Rajapaksa (MR) and Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW); In 2010 Mahinda Rajapaksa (MR) and Sarath Fonseka (SF); In 2015 Maithripala Sirisena (MS) and Mahinda Rajapaksa (MR); In 2019 Gotabaya Rajapaksa (GR), Sajith Premadasa (SP) and Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD); in 2024 Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe.
According to the Department of Census and Statistics, in 2016 state employees were 485,471 and provincial public employees were 380,198 and semi government employees were 243,806 totalling to 1,109,475. Semi government employees do not participate in elections. In the 2015 presidential election, total postal votes casted was 522,663. This figure as a percentage of total government employees was 47.1%. The percentage excluding the semi government employees from the total was 60.4%. We do not have the latest data of government employees and considering the statistics in 2015 presidential election and the number of government employees in 2016, we can conclude that fair estimate could be arrived at the behaviour of the government employees in the elections.
In the graph we can see the percentages of postal votes and total votes taken by the candidates. The distinguished feature is that in all instances except two instances, the winning candidate got higher percentage of postal votes in comparison to the total votes he/she got. The two exceptions were 1988 and 2015 presidential elections. Interestingly those were the elections where center-right candidates won.
Only other instance where center- right candidate won was in 1982 where JRJ won. presidential election of 1982 was conducted after the 1980 general strike where the participants of which were removed from their respective posts. They were mostly of left orientation. Yet the preference of government employees was in favour of JRJ. They voted 6.06% more in comparison to the total votes for him. HK had postal votes 5.62% less than the percentage of total votes.
In the case of RP and SB in 1988, RP got 3.97% less than the percentage of total votes whereas SB got 4.37% more in postal votes in comparison to the total votes.
In the case of MS and MR in 2015 MS got 0.24% less of the percentage of total voted whereas MR got 0.95% more in postal votes in comparison to the total votes.
In both these elections, the candidates who got the support of the UNP and the center-right parties won the elections and yet the preference of the state sector employees was more skewed towards the candidates who lost and who were representing the center-left political ideologies. The gap between the postal votes and the total votes was the least at the 2015 elections. Interestingly in all the instances a similar quantum of gap prevailed between the postal votes and total votes of the winning and losing candidates although the trend was in different directions, except in the case of RW in 2024 election where the trend was similar to that of AKD In 2019 election the position of AKD was also the same.
The highest gap was reported in the presidential election 2024. Here AKD got 14.39% more in the postal votes in comparison to the total votes. He got 56.69% of the postal votes and if that trend continued he would have won the election in a considerable margin. SP got 15.14% less in postal votes in comparison to the total votes. Interestingly the trend of the losing candidate RW was similar to that of the winning candidate AKD. RW got 5.87% more votes of postal voters compared to his total votes.
The second highest gap was recorded in the 2005 election. MR got 10.81% more postal votes compared to his total votes. He got 61.1% of the postal votes which was a big margin. His opponent RW got 11.25% less postal votes compared to his total votes.
In both these elections, 2005 and 2024, elections were held after the country faced economic setbacks. When RW came to power in 2001, the economy recorded a negative growth and the concern was the economic recovery. RW focused on that and temporarily stopped the war by signing a cease-fire agreement with the LTTE and stopped the recruitments to the state sector in order to reduce the drain from the state coffers, although it was detrimental to winning elections. Government ministers at that time openly said that but RW did not deviate. Eventually he brought the economy to a positive growth. Prior to the presidential election he lost the general election too.
In 2024, RW brought the bankrupt economy to the correct path which was a painful path. The present government also would not deviate from it.
In both cases although there was an economic recovery the people opted to vote RW out and the postal voter were very much ahead in the trend that he was voted out.
There were different narratives taken up in these two elections rather than the economic recovery. In 2005 it was the cease- fire agreement and in 2024 it was the corrupt political culture which were highlighted rather than economic recovery. The reason may be that in both the instances the economy was in the correct path at the time of the elections.
Is it that the government employees are opinion leaders or trend setters in elections? However the view of the total population is somewhat balanced. These trends were visible at a glance, but a detailed analysis would be beneficial for the candidates as well as for the analysts of the election results.
Published in Colombo Telegraph on October 26, 2024)
https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/electoral-preferences-of-the-government-employees-of-sri-lanka/
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